General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, Uganda’s Chief of Defence Forces, has unleashed a blistering attack on the European Union delegation in Uganda, branding their actions “an abomination” and warning they are “playing with fire.”
The provocative post on X, punctuated with the Swahili exclamation “Sawa!” (meaning “Enough!”), was a direct response to the EU delegation’s recent visit to the offices of the opposition National Unity Platform (NUP), led by Robert Kyagulanyi Ssentamu, popularly known as Bobi Wine.
The general’s outburst has plunged Uganda’s already volatile political landscape into deeper uncertainty, raising alarms about escalating tensions with Western partners ahead of the 2026 elections.
The Trigger: EU’s Visit to NUP Offices
Kainerugaba’s warning came hours after reports surfaced that a delegation from the EU in Uganda visited the NUP headquarters in Kamwokya, Kampala, on May 14, 2025.
The visit, described by NUP officials as a routine engagement to discuss human rights and electoral reforms, was perceived by Kainerugaba and his allies as a provocative endorsement of the opposition.
According to sources within the NUP, the EU delegation, led by senior diplomats, met with Kyagulanyi and other party leaders to address concerns about the detention of opposition activists, including Eddie Mutwe, Kyagulanyi’s chief bodyguard, who was allegedly held by Kainerugaba’s forces.
Mutwe’s recent court appearance, showing visible signs of torture, has intensified scrutiny of the general’s actions, with Uganda’s justice minister acknowledging “irregularities” in detainee treatment.
The EU’s decision to engage directly with the NUP, a party that has faced relentless government crackdowns since its rise in the 2021 elections, appears to have struck a nerve.
Kainerugaba’s X post reflects his view that the visit constitutes foreign interference in Uganda’s internal affairs. His outburst is part of a broader pattern of confrontational rhetoric that has defined his public persona.
In January 2025, he threatened to “behead” Kyagulanyi, later claiming it was a joke, though it drew condemnation from Amnesty International.
In October 2024, he targeted U.S. Ambassador William Popp, threatening expulsion for alleged disrespect toward Museveni.
Regionally, his December 2024 demand for an apology from Sudan and March 2025 threats to intervene in Congolese cities like Kisangani have cemented his reputation as a volatile figure.
The EU warning, however, marks a new peak in his campaign to assert dominance, both domestically and internationally.
His post is seen as a strategic move to rally nationalist sentiment and deflect attention from mounting allegations of human rights abuses.
“Kainerugaba is framing the EU’s NUP visit as an attack on Uganda’s sovereignty to shore up his base,” said Dr. Lillian Mbabazi, a political analyst at Makerere University. “It’s a classic tactic to paint the opposition as foreign puppets while positioning himself as the nation’s defender.”
The EU’s High-Stakes Diplomacy
The EU has been a pivotal partner in Uganda, investing over €600 million since 2014 in development, governance, and human rights initiatives, according to its official reports.
Its engagement with the NUP reflects a broader commitment to fostering dialogue with all stakeholders ahead of the 2026 elections, which many fear will mirror the violence of 2021.
However, the visit to NUP’s offices, coupled with prior EU meetings with Kainerugaba himself, has exposed the delegation to accusations of inconsistency.
On May 12, 2025, Kyagulanyi criticized the EU for engaging Kainerugaba, alleging it legitimized his abuses, only for the NUP visit to now provoke the general’s wrath.
The EU has yet to respond publicly to Kainerugaba’s warning, but diplomatic sources suggest internal debates over how to proceed.
“The EU is caught between upholding its human rights principles and maintaining influence with a government increasingly dominated by military figures,” said a European diplomat, speaking anonymously.
The visit to NUP, while intended to signal support for democratic processes, may have underestimated Kainerugaba’s sensitivity to perceived slights, especially as he consolidates power within the Uganda People’s Defence Force (UPDF).
Regionally, the EU’s role in stabilizing the Great Lakes region adds further complexity. Kainerugaba’s leadership of UPDF operations in Somalia, praised by the African Union on May 15, 2025, contrasts with his destabilizing rhetoric toward the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).
His March 2025 defense pact with Rwanda’s Paul Kagame, coupled with threats against the DRC, has strained relations in a region where the EU funds peacebuilding efforts.
The NUP visit risks being interpreted as a shift in EU priorities, potentially alienating Uganda’s military elite at a critical juncture.
Domestic Polarization and the “Muhoozi Project”
Kainerugaba’s warning has deepened Uganda’s political fault lines.
Within the ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM), allies like Balam Barugaharra, the Minister for Youth, have rallied behind him, with Barugaharra posting on X: “Gen Muhoozi is Uganda’s shield against foreign meddling!”
Conversely, opposition leaders view the EU warning as a dangerous escalation.
NUP secretary general David Lewis Rubongoya told local media, “Kainerugaba’s attack on the EU is a smokescreen to silence dissent and intimidate international observers.”
The Uganda Human Rights Commission, despite its limited authority, has reiterated demands for Kainerugaba to release unlawfully detained activists, a call he has consistently ignored.
The incident has fueled speculation about the “Muhoozi Project,” an alleged plan to position Kainerugaba as Museveni’s successor.
While the general has pledged support for his father’s 2026 candidacy, his high-profile military role, social media dominance, and recent pledges to enhance UPDF welfare—highlighted during the May 14, 2025, Inter Forces Drills at Kololo Ceremonial Grounds—suggest broader ambitions.
The UPDF Amendment Bill, tabled on May 13, 2025, which expands military oversight of civilian governance, further bolsters his influence, according to parliamentary records.
The EU warning, by casting him as a nationalist hero, may be a calculated step to strengthen his political brand.
Global and Regional Ramifications
Kainerugaba’s actions carry significant international implications. The EU, a major funder of AU missions in Somalia, could reconsider its support if Uganda’s military leadership continues to antagonize partners.
The U.S., which imposed sanctions on Ugandan officials in 2021, may view the EU warning as grounds for further measures, especially after Kainerugaba’s prior clash with Ambassador Popp.
Regionally, the warning complicates the EU’s efforts to stabilize the Great Lakes. Kainerugaba’s alignment with Rwanda and tensions with the DRC, exacerbated by his support for the M23 rebellion, threaten to escalate conflicts where the EU and UN are heavily invested.
The NUP visit, by signaling EU support for Uganda’s opposition, could prompt Kainerugaba to double down on his regional provocations, further destabilizing the region.
What’s Next for Uganda?
As Uganda hurtles toward the 2026 elections, Kainerugaba’s warning to the EU marks a pivotal moment.
For the EU, the challenge is to balance its commitment to democracy with the need to engage a government increasingly under military sway.
Disengaging risks ceding influence to powers like Russia or China, who have deepened ties with Uganda, while continued engagement may embolden Kainerugaba’s tactics.
For Ugandans, the stakes are profound. “Muhoozi’s words aren’t just a tweet—they’re a threat to our freedom,” said Sarah Nankya, a Kampala-based civil society activist.
The coming days will determine whether Kainerugaba’s threats spark a full-blown diplomatic crisis or fades as another social media storm. For now, Uganda stands on edge, with the EU’s visit to the NUP offices serving as a flashpoint in a high-stakes battle for the nation’s future.