The recent ceasefire in the Iran-Israel-US conflict has brought a tentative calm to the Middle East, but African leaders must remain vigilant.
While the immediate threat of escalation has eased, the geopolitical tremors from this crisis continue to ripple across the continent, demanding proactive measures to safeguard security, economic stability, and diplomatic influence.
The ceasefire has reduced the risk of direct conflict, but Africa’s security vulnerabilities persist. North and East African states, particularly Egypt, remain exposed to potential flare-ups. Iranian projectiles recently illuminated Cairo’s skies, underscoring its precarious position.
President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi’s push for de-escalation reflects this reality. US military bases in Djibouti and Somalia, and Israel’s assets in Eritrea, could still become targets if tensions reignite, especially with Iran’s proxies like the Houthis active in the region.
Indirectly, the West’s focus on the Middle East and Ukraine could further strain Africa’s under-resourced security sectors, leaving countries like Nigeria and Mali more vulnerable to insurgencies.
Economically, the ceasefire offers temporary relief, but global uncertainty lingers. A strengthened US dollar continues to pressure African currencies, raising debt servicing costs for nations like Zambia and Kenya, where over 30% of revenue goes to debt repayment.
Any disruption to the Strait of Hormuz could still spike oil prices, hitting net importers with inflation and exacerbating cost-of-living crises. Smaller economies, like Lesotho and Eswatini, face declining customs revenue, projected to drop by up to 20% this year.
While rising gold prices may benefit Ghana and South Africa, and oil exporters like Nigeria could see gains, these are unlikely to offset broader risks from global trade slowdowns.
Diplomatically, the ceasefire eases pressure on African states to pick sides, but the global order remains fragile. South Africa, balancing BRICS ties and tensions with Washington over its Iran and Israel stances, risks punitive measures if missteps occur.
The erosion of multilateralism, evident in strained BRICS+ unity and a weakened UN Security Council, threatens Africa’s collective influence. A slide toward “might is right” politics could embolden regional powers like Ethiopia or Rwanda to pursue destabilizing ambitions, undermining continental stability.
African leaders must seize this moment of calm to act. Bolstering regional security cooperation can reduce reliance on external powers. Unified diplomacy is essential to protect Africa’s sovereignty and amplify its voice on issues like climate finance and debt restructuring.
Economically, fiscal discipline and deeper regional markets can build resilience. The ceasefire may have doused immediate flames, but its fragility demands Africa prepare for potential sparks.