Former East African Legislative Assembly MP Fred Mukasa Mbidde has cast doubt on the ability of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) to successfully disarm the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR), warning that Rwanda would be justified in maintaining its defensive posture.
Speaking on a political talk show on Radio 4 Uganda hosted by Adam Kungu on Tuesday, Mbidde argued that structural challenges within the Congolese state make the disarmament effort highly uncertain.
“I doubt whether the Democratic Republic of Congo has the capacity to disarm the FDLR,” Mbidde said. “First, because the FDLR has deeply infiltrated both the government and the military. Second, because there appears to be an entrenched relationship between elements of the Congolese state and the FDLR.”
He added that under such conditions, any expectation of rapid disarmament may be unrealistic, urging caution from Kigali.
“In that context, if I were Rwanda, I would not rush to lift my defensive measures until there is clear, verifiable proof that the FDLR has been fully disarmed. It would be unwise to rely solely on assurances from Congo at this stage,” he said.
Disarmament Push Underway
Mbidde’s remarks come as the Congolese army (FARDC) has launched a new disarmament campaign targeting the FDLR in eastern Congo.
Military officials say the operation will begin with voluntary surrender before shifting to force if necessary, with a reception centre established in Kisangani to process ex-combatants.
The FDLR, which includes remnants of forces linked to the 1994 Rwanda genocide, has long been a central issue in regional tensions. Rwanda has repeatedly demanded its neutralisation as a precondition for lasting peace.
Regional Tensions and Sanctions
The renewed disarmament effort follows recent diplomatic engagements between Kinshasa and Kigali under a U.S.-brokered peace framework, as well as sanctions imposed by the U.S. Department of the Treasury on the Rwanda Defence Force over alleged support to the March 23 Movement.
While Washington has called for Rwanda to withdraw its forces, Kigali maintains that it will only lift its defensive measures in tandem with verifiable steps by the DRC to dismantle the FDLR and other armed groups it considers a direct threat.
A Test of the Peace Process
The success or failure of the FARDC operation against the FDLR could become a defining test for the fragile peace process in eastern Congo. The conflict, which has drawn in multiple armed groups and regional actors, continues to drive one of the world’s largest humanitarian crises.
Mbidde’s comments explain a growing skepticism in regional political circles about whether current efforts can deliver meaningful security guarantees, particularly in the absence of trust between the two countries.
As military operations begin on the ground, attention is now turning to whether the DRC can translate commitments into action, and whether that will be enough to shift Rwanda’s security calculations.