It is four weeks now since the presidential campaigns kicked off on September 29 but no serious incidents of violence have been recorded like it has always been in the previous six election held under President Yoweri Museveni’s reign.
Robert Ssentamu Kyagulanyi alias Bobi Wine, the National Unity Platform -NUP presidential candidate who was the most affected victim of security violence with his supporters, has largely had uninterrupted rallies for the last 28 days in various parts of the country.
Bobi Wine has indicated that there have been only a few intimidations and blockades to his rally venues. He has not reported surviving security bullets, shot supporters or teargas being used to disperse his supporters which was every day scenario in the 2021 presidential campaign process.
“Earlier at Kakeeka grounds in Kakumiro district, the criminal regime police landed a chopper at our venue and tried to block us from addressing our supporters,” Bobi Wine recently said. “Not even the intimidation tactics by the regime Prime Minister could stop our great people of Kagadi and Kibaale districts from convening in large numbers to welcome our message of change.”
All the last six presidential elections in which Museveni emerged victorious did not end without a dose of violence which included clobbering of rivals as well as arresting or teargasing candidates, mostly those from leading opposition parties.
The most violent presidential campaign period was of 2021 in which Bobi Wine and his supporters faced the roughest times with police and military personnel. According to Uganda police annual crime report of 2020, at least 54 people were killed on November 18 and 19 in the protests demanding for Bobi’s release.
The protest that were mostly witnessed in Buganda and Busoga came after police commanded by now police’s director of operations Frank Mwesigwa arrested Bobi Wine at his campaign rally in Luuka district. Police and military responded by opening fire at the protesters which left dozens dead and scores injured.
The deadly protests happened in the second week of the presidential campaigns which hasn’t been witnessed this time and so far four weeks have been largely peaceful. This has left many wondering whether the campaign process will this time remain peaceful throughout.
Mubarak Munyagwa, the Common Man’s Party -CMP Presidential candidate said the campaigns are not largely peaceful but it is the candidates that have restrained themselves from the confrontations.
According to Munyagwa, several presidential candidates including himself have been denied access to the main towns by security forces. He says that if the restrictions to access major towns continue, they will urge their supporters to defy and it would result into serious violence.
The relatively peaceful period of the presidential campaigns witnessed so far is also attributed to the Inspector General of Police –IGP Abas Byakagaba’s directive on not using teargas, live or rubber bullets as the first options to disperse crowds or quash protests.
Byakagaba, ordered for refresher operational trainings for all the 32 policing regions mostly targeting Field Force Unit –FFU which is known for quashing protests. In the pre-election trainings, commanders were directed by IGP and director of operations Mwesigwa to equip police officers with judgment skills for scenarios that require oral engagement, use of baton charge, use of teargas, and ammunitions.
The IGP said the force he superintends in collaboration with sister security agencies such as Uganda People’s Defence Forces-UPDF as well the Joint Intelligence Committee prepared to ensure a peaceful electoral process. He also called upon Ugandans, politicians and their supporters to be peaceful.
Dr Livingston Ssewanyana, a renowned human rights defender and political analysts, who is also the executive director for Foundation for Human Rights Initiative, says violence is mostly orchestrated by security agencies. According to Ssewanyana, security forces started the campaigns by blocking some candidates such as Bobi Wine and if this continues to happen, it could cause violence.
Dr Ssewanyana believes that if all presidential candidates including the incumbent Museveni are given freedom to engage with their supporters, the country would have a peaceful campaign period. This could also lead to the election being described as free and fair.
Julius Mucunguzi, the Electoral Commission Spokesperson, said they engaged with agents and police leadership on the various issues that were arising at the start of the campaigns to ensure observance of law and order.
“We engaged with all agents of presidential candidates together with Police leadership which is mandated by law to provide security during elections and ensure observance of law and order to discuss all issues relating to the ongoing campaigns,” Mucunguzi said.
Dr Ssewanyana said EC is the most powerful institution when it comes to electoral process and it should continue exercising its powers to address any matters arising from the campaigns. Dr Ssewanyana believes EC has power to dictate how the campaigns flow by cautioning security agencies.
Elections under Museveni first experienced serious violence in 2001 when Maj Roland Kakooza Mutale formed the Kalangala Action Plan KAP which was used to manhandle members of the Reformed Agenda led by Dr Kizza Besigye.
Besigye had just retired from the military and immediately challenged Museveni on the ballot. The media reported that KAP was used to subdue those who were perceived to be a threat to Museveni. Besigye, the media said shocked many by declaring his candidature against a man he had treated in their guerrilla war.
Besigye who fled to exile after the violent 2001 election returned to contest in the 2006 presidential election and this time KAP’s violence was doubled. The violence of the 2011 elections was orchestrated by Boda-boda 2010 headed by Abdullah Kitata alongside security agencies.
In the 2016, crime preventers headed by Blaise Kamugisha and security forces clobbered Besigye’s supporters and some of Amama Mbabazi who had just exited the government to challenge Museveni like Besigye did in 2001.
The 2021 violence was largely by military and police personnel. Videos recorded by CCTV cameras on private buildings and those recorded by civilians using mobile phones showed soldiers and police officers shooting inside buildings and crows on balconies until 54 people perished.
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