As Uganda and the Democratic Republic of Congo continue to battle recurring Ebola outbreaks alongside other infectious disease threats across the continent, African scientists are strengthening the continent’s ability to respond through data-driven, equity-focused mathematical modelling. Mathematical models help policymakers predict disease transmission, estimate healthcare needs, identify vulnerable populations, evaluate vaccination strategies, optimize resource allocation, and prepare for future pandemics before crises spiral out of control.
The idea is being driven by African Modelling and Analytics Academy for Women (AMAX), a pan-African initiative bringing together Francophone and Anglophone research institutions to strengthen Africa’s capacity in mathematical modelling and advance women’s health research across the continent.
Recent Ebola outbreaks in Uganda and the Democratic Republic of Congo have once again demonstrated the critical importance of timely disease surveillance, predictive modelling, healthcare resource planning, and coordinated public health responses.
Public health experts say mathematical modelling has become an essential tool for governments and health agencies seeking to anticipate disease spread, evaluate intervention strategies, and prepare health systems before outbreaks escalate. AMAX was established under the Gates Foundation’s Global Grand Challenges initiative within the Gender Data Equity programme.
The initiative responds to longstanding gaps in women’s health data, which remain underrepresented in many African health systems and insufficiently integrated into public health modelling and policy design. At the same time, African countries continue to face increasingly complex health emergencies, including Ebola, COVID-19, antimicrobial resistance, hepatitis, and neglected tropical diseases, often within resource-constrained health systems.
“COVID-19 and repeated Ebola outbreaks in Africa showed the world that mathematical modelling is not just an academic exercise; it is essential for epidemic preparedness, rapid response, and policy action,” said Prof. Amira Kebir, Principal Investigator of the AMAX project. “AMAX was created to ensure African countries have the expertise and collaborative networks needed to respond to public health challenges while also addressing gender inequities in health data and decision-making,” she added.
Through intra-African collaboration, AMAX is helping build a new generation of African modellers capable of translating complex data into practical policy solutions for ministries of health and public health agencies across the continent. Researchers within the network apply epidemiological, statistical, and economic models to answer urgent public health questions, forecast disease trends, evaluate intervention strategies, and support evidence-based policymaking during outbreaks and public health emergencies.
The initiative focuses on five major health challenges affecting women and vulnerable populations: human papillomavirus (HPV), hepatitis B virus (HBV), COVID-19, antimicrobial resistance (AMR), and schistosomiasis. Dr. Mutono Nyamai, Senior Research Fellow at the Centre for Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis (CEMA), said the initiative reflects the growing need to build strong local research capacity capable of delivering locally grounded solutions to Africa’s most pressing health challenges.
“Strengthening expertise in data analytics and mathematical modelling within African institutions will enable countries to respond more effectively to outbreaks and health emergencies through timely, evidence-based decision-making — ultimately saving lives,” she said. Over the past two weeks, researchers within the AMAX network and leading African research institutions gathered in Nairobi for the 3rd AMAX Summer School under the theme: “Modelling for Health Decision-Making: Integrating Epidemiological, Economic, and Equity Evidence for Policy Action.”
The Summer School was hosted by the University of Nairobi’s Centre for Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis (CEMA) in collaboration with the Laboratory of Bioinformatics, Biomathematics and Biostatistics at the Pasteur Institute of Tunis.
“The challenge is that this expertise remains unevenly distributed across the continent. Some countries and institutions have established modelling programmes, while others still face significant gaps despite carrying a high burden of public health challenges.
Joy Kalekye, a PhD fellow at CEMA and member of the AMAX project team in Kenya, who worked closely with Senegal’s Ministry of Health and Public Hygiene to inform national strategies aimed at controlling and eliminating schistosomiasis, a neglected tropical disease of major public health concern in Africa.
Her research highlighted the benefits of expanding treatment to include children below five years and recommended aligning Senegal’s National Strategic Plan for Neglected Tropical Diseases (2025–2030) with the 2022 World Health Organization guidelines.
She also advocated for the inclusion of young children in mass drug administration campaigns tailored to local levels of endemicity. In another collaboration, Dr. Oumaima Laraj, a postdoctoral research fellow, and Sahar Trabelsi, a PhD student in Applied Mathematics, both from the Institut Pasteur de Tunis and members of the AMAX Tunisia team, spent six months at CEMA conducting modelling and gender-based data analysis across several infectious disease projects.
Their work focused on four diseases that disproportionately affect women: HPV, hepatitis B, COVID-19, and antimicrobial resistance. Dr. Laraj’s research examined the economic impact of HPV vaccination strategies across several African countries by modelling both health outcomes and financial costs of different vaccination and screening approaches. Her work helped identify strategies that are both effective and affordable for national health systems.
Meanwhile, Ms. Trabelsi developed adaptive, data-driven models aimed at strengthening epidemic response strategies and optimizing healthcare resource allocation, with a strong focus on equity and real-time public health decision-making. The AMAX network has also enabled several other high-impact collaborations across African countries.
Building on earlier HPV modelling work in Tunisia, where vaccination scenarios informed national strategy and long-term impact assessments, a Senegal-Tunisia collaboration adapted the same framework to Senegal’s epidemiological and financing context. At a critical moment as Senegal transitions away from Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance support, the study provided important evidence to guide sustainable and equitable health investment decisions.
AMAX was created to help close those gaps by strengthening local expertise, fostering collaboration, and promoting shared learning across African institutions.” He added that AMAX is not only training scientists, but also creating a collaborative ecosystem linking researchers, ministries of health, data providers, and policymakers across Africa.
Participants at the Nairobi Summer School engaged in lectures, practical group work, case studies, and policy-focused hackathons designed to address real-world health challenges facing African ministries of health.
The training integrated epidemiology, health economics, research ethics, and equity considerations to ensure modelling remains relevant for public health decision-making during outbreaks and health emergencies. Beyond the Summer School, AMAX’s broader mission is to ensure Africa can generate its own evidence, strengthen its own modelling expertise, and design health policies rooted in African realities.
The growing network is helping shape a new generation of African scientists who are not only technically skilled but also deeply connected to the policy needs of their countries. URN