With less than a month to the January 15 presidential and parliamentary elections, a familiar anxiety has returned: will the internet stay on, or will it go dark again?
The Uganda Communications Commission (UCC) has reignited debate after warning that the conduct of users in digital spaces will determine whether internet access is maintained before, during and after polling day.
The remarks recall the nationwide internet shutdown imposed during the 2021 elections, a decision that disrupted businesses, restricted access to information, and drew international condemnation.
UCC’s head of litigation and legal advisory, Abdu Sallam Waiswa, says no final decision has been made, but that the behaviour of users on platforms such as X (formerly Twitter), Facebook and TikTok will be decisive. “There is no known position currently on whether the internet will be shut down or not,” Waiswa said. “The final decision will depend on the general conduct of digital spaces.”
According to Waiswa, regulatory bodies working alongside security agencies are closely observing online activity. If digital platforms are deemed to pose a security threat, pparticularly through incitement or mobilisation of violence, UCC will not hesitate to order a shutdown.
Although UCC has not publicly detailed its monitoring mechanisms, an ICT and digital tracking expert who has previously worked with Ugandan and East African agencies says surveillance of online spaces is routine, especially during periods of political tension.
Microblogging platforms such as X, the expert explains, offer real-time indicators of trending topics, geographical origins of posts, and accounts driving specific narratives.
“There is always a team assigned to watch social media trends during elections or protests,” the expert said. “We can tell in real time how many posts are being made, where they are coming from, and whether messages contain threats or incitement. UCC is not speaking out of the blue. This has been done before in Uganda and recently in Tanzania.”
The expert adds that once evidence of incitement is presented, UCC and the National Information Technology Authority–Uganda (NITA-U) can order disconnection of fibre infrastructure, even as certain security systems such as biometric voter machines remain operational through satellite connectivity.
Police spokesperson Kituuma Rusoke, however, sought to distance the police from decisions on shutdowns, saying their mandate is limited to investigating crimes committed in digital spaces.
“The police cannot order an internet shutdown,” Rusoke said. “That decision lies with UCC or NITA-U, once they are satisfied those digital platforms are being used to commit offences such as inciting violence.”
For human rights lawyers, the warning signals a troubling continuation of collective punishment in the digital age. Eron Kiiza, who represented civil society organisation Unwanted Witness in litigation challenging the 2021 shutdown, argues that blanket restrictions violate fundamental rights and undermine livelihoods.
“You cannot penalise the entire population because a few people have abused the internet,” Kiiza said. “Single out those individuals and show which laws they have violated instead of punishing everyone.”
Kiiza maintains that shutdowns infringe on the right to access information and disproportionately harm citizens whose incomes depend on digital platforms. He describes renewed threats of a blackout as “unfortunate” and calls on Ugandans to reject them.
UCC, for its part, insists that existing laws such as the Computer Misuse Act provide sufficient tools to prosecute individuals who create or share inciting content, including AI-generated images or statements. While Uganda has no specific law regulating artificial intelligence, Waiswa says misuse of digital tools can still attract criminal liability.
“The internet will remain available if users act responsibly,” he said. Beyond rights and security, the economic stakes of an internet shutdown are significant.
James Kanuuma, a manager at an online betting company employing 11 staff, fears a blackout would bring operations to a halt especially with the Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON) set to begin, a peak period for online betting.
“If the internet is shut down, we are out of business,” Kanuuma said. “Clients won’t access matches, and we won’t be able to pay salaries or operational bills.”
For small-scale entrepreneurs, the consequences are even more personal. Precious Akamutuha, who sells ghee, butter and bongo online, says digital platforms are her primary market after failing to secure formal employment.
“I get most of my customers online and arrange deliveries there,” she said. “If the internet is shut down, I lose my livelihood. Government should think about businesses that depend on digital access.”
The memory of the 2021 shutdown looms large. That election took place amid COVID-19 restrictions that forced a shift to what government termed a “scientific election,” relying heavily on digital engagement. Online spaces became central to political mobilisation and disinformation.
Tensions escalated after the arrest of opposition candidate Robert Kyagulanyi, popularly known as Bobi Wine, sparking protests that were violently suppressed by security forces. Much of the violence was documented and shared online, forming the basis of investigative reports such as BBC Africa Eye’s exposé on the use of live ammunition against civilians.
As scrutiny of state conduct intensified online, UCC moved to pressure platforms. In December 2020, it asked Google to take down several pro-opposition YouTube channels, including Kyagulanyi’s. Google declined, highlighting the limits of state power over foreign-owned platforms.
Matters escalated further on January 11, 2021, when Facebook and Twitter suspended hundreds of accounts linked to Uganda’s ruling party for coordinated inauthentic behaviour. Within 48 hours, Uganda entered a nationwide internet blackout that lasted through polling day and beyond, with Facebook remaining blocked even after partial restoration.
Uganda’s experience fits a broader continental pattern. The African Commission on Human and Peoples’ Rights has repeatedly warned against election-related internet shutdowns, describing access to the internet as essential for freedom of expression, access to information, and democratic participation.
In a 2024 resolution, the Commission called on states to refrain from disrupting internet access before, durin,g and after elections, noting a worrying trend of blackouts across Africa that undermine free and credible polls.
Scholars examining the issue, including in the Bloomsbury Collections volume Internet Shutdowns in Africa: Technology, Rights and Power, argue that shutdowns have become a modern “kill switch,” reinforcing long-standing power dynamics between the state, regulators, and citizens.
As Uganda heads toward another pivotal election, the question of whether the internet will remain on reflects deeper tensions between security and rights, control and participation, state authority and digital freedom.
For now, the decision remains officially undecided. But for millions of Ugandans whose voices, businesses, and civic engagement now flow through digital channels, the stakes could not be higher.
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