Uganda’s Agriculture Minister Frank Tumwebaze has sought to calm concerns over falling coffee and cocoa prices, saying the recent decline is largely driven by changes in global supply expectations and inventories rather than a collapse in demand.
In a statement issued on Sunday, September 20, Tumwebaze said international commodity markets were undergoing a period of adjustment and volatility, affecting both coffee and cocoa.
“I wish to convey my sympathies to some farmers and traders who might have been affected. It is true, the international commodity markets, including for coffee and cocoa, are experiencing a period of adjustment and volatility,” Tumwebaze said.
“However, the current price fluctuation should not be interpreted as a disappearance of demand for coffee or cocoa. It is largely a response to changing expectations in global supply and inventories.”
Tumwebaze said Uganda, as a major coffee-producing country, is exposed to movements in international markets because domestic prices are influenced by production levels, inventories, weather conditions, shipping costs, currencies, consumption and purchasing decisions in major producing and consuming countries.
Robusta prices under pressure
The minister attributed recent pressure on coffee prices partly to increased supplies from Brazil and Vietnam. According to Tumwebaze, Arabica had fallen to about $3.03 per pound by September 3, while Robusta stood at around $3,426 per tonne.
International Coffee Organization data shows that the organisation continues to monitor significant developments in the global coffee market through its monthly market reports.
Recent Brazilian export data also points to increased availability. Brazil recorded a sharp rise in green coffee exports in September, following a record level of shipments in August.
For Uganda, the pressure comes as farmers are also dealing with lower production in some areas because of adverse weather. Tumwebaze said prolonged drought and unusually high temperatures in parts of Greater Masaka, Kyotera, Sembabule, Luwero and other coffee-growing areas affected flowering, cherry development, bean filling and processing out-turn.
He estimated that adverse weather had contributed to an out-turn approximately 10 percent below the normal average in affected areas.
Uganda’s coffee exports fall
The impact is already visible in Uganda’s export figures.
The country exported 846,376 bags of 60 kilogrammes in July 2026, compared with 997,105 bags in July 2025. Export earnings also fell from $250.7 million to $204.1 million.
Reuters reported that Uganda’s July coffee shipments declined by about 15 percent year-on-year, while export earnings fell by 18.6 percent. Uganda remains Africa’s largest coffee exporter, with coffee and gold among its major sources of foreign exchange.
Robusta accounted for the overwhelming majority of July exports, with 775,148 bags compared with 71,228 bags of Arabica.
Tumwebaze said the lower availability has also made traders more selective in determining prices.
“Farmers bringing well-dried, properly harvested and good-quality coffee may be offered a substantially better price than one bringing immature, poorly dried or mixed coffee,” he said.
Robusta farmers feel the squeeze
MAAIF figures cited by Tumwebaze show that Robusta Kiboko prices averaged between Sh5,000 and Sh6,000 per kilogramme during the first half of September, compared with Sh6,000 to Sh7,000 during the same period last year.
Robusta FAQ fell from Sh13,500–14,000 per kilogramme in September 2025 to Sh11,500–12,000 this September. Tumwebaze described the FAQ movement as a decline of about 14.5 percent.
Arabica, however, has followed a different trajectory. Its parchment increased from about Sh14,000–15,000 per kilogramme last September to Sh15,500–16,000 in the first half of September this year.
Tumwebaze said a comparison of the midpoint price showed an increase of about 8.5 percent. Recent market data also shows that Ugandan Robusta prices have come under considerable pressure from their July peaks, while Arabica has generally held up better.
Tumwebaze says farmers are not necessarily making losses
Despite the decline in some coffee prices, Tumwebaze rejected the assumption that farmers are automatically operating at a loss.
“Most important to note is that our farmers are not close to making losses,” he said. “A decline in price is not the same thing as making a loss.”
He explained that profitability depends on a farmer’s production costs, productivity per acre, coffee quality, post-harvest handling and whether the coffee is sold as raw Kiboko or in a more processed and graded form.
According to the minister, Uganda’s coffee farming models show that farmers who improve productivity and undertake basic value addition can break even even when the FAQ price falls to Sh7,000 per kilogramme.
He acknowledged, however, that farmers affected by severe drought can suffer significant financial losses.
Cocoa prices also volatile
The price pressure is not limited to coffee. Tumwebaze said international cocoa markets had also experienced substantial fluctuations, with prices falling sharply after reaching recent highs.
He attributed the correction partly to expectations of increased supplies and higher inventories. The Ivory Coast remains particularly important to the global cocoa market. Reuters reported in September that the country produces about 40 percent of the world’s cocoa and supplies around 70 percent of its cocoa exports to Europe.
The minister said cocoa prices, like coffee, will continue to be influenced by weather conditions and production levels in major producing regions.
Government plans drought response
Tumwebaze said government is focusing on restoring agricultural production following the drought and improving farmers’ resilience to climate shocks.
MAAIF, he said, will continue monitoring international and domestic prices and providing indicative market information to farmers and other stakeholders.
The ministry also plans to strengthen coffee production and productivity, rehabilitate existing coffee gardens, establish new gardens and support farmers affected by drought.
Government is also distributing fertilisers and other productivity-enhancing inputs under a presidential directive. Tumwebaze said Uganda is further expanding irrigation through collaboration between MAAIF, the Ministry of Water and Environment and other government agencies.
Under the Climate Smart Agricultural Transformation Project, farmers are also being supported with improved planting materials, water-management practices and technologies intended to help them adapt to changing weather conditions.
Government expects some price recovery
Tumwebaze said Brazil’s coffee harvest and Vietnam’s Robusta exports will remain important factors for the international market over the next six months.
He said increased global supplies could keep prices under pressure, while adverse weather or lower-than-expected production could tighten supplies and push prices higher.
For cocoa, improved supply expectations and higher inventories are currently contributing to the correction, although weather risks remain.
“It is, therefore, reasonable to expect a slight price recovery and stability over the coming six months,” Tumwebaze said.
He urged farmers not to panic or harvest immature coffee, saying quality improvement and value addition could help farmers secure better returns.
“To our farmers, do not panic. Do not harvest immature coffee. Do not compromise quality,” Tumwebaze said. “Farmers can increase their returns considerably by moving from raw Kiboko into better processed and graded coffee.”
Uganda’s coffee sector continues to attract international demand, with recent export data showing shipments to markets including Italy, Sudan, Germany and Morocco.
Tumwebaze said government would announce further strategic interventions in the short and medium term to support farmers and other actors in Uganda’s coffee and cocoa value chains.